Let’s begin this week with the unpleasantness of the US export sales report. The numbers were generally small but wheat was the biggest disappointment. Old crop all wheat sales totaled only 102,300 MT while corn came in at 435,000 MT and soybeans at 505,800 MT. Actually soybeans weren’t terrible considering how late we are in the year and look even better when the new crop sales of 220,200 are added into the total. Still, the sum of the big three was extremely disappointing with exports clearly suffering due to the strong US dollar. Nuff said, let’s move onto greener pastures.
In outside markets, crude finished the week higher despite today’s nearly 6% drop in nearby WTI. Yahoo! Finance had a good article regarding frackers and low crude prices. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-american-frackers-plan-to-beat-opec-143601751.html If you don’t feel like reading it the takeaway is, it’s good for consumers. The US dollar index finished lower on the week as the market awaits next week’s jobs report. For what it’s worth, the Fed Chairman said this week that the Fed is giving "serious consideration" to beginning to reduce its accommodative monetary policy. I’m not sure what that means but who the hell am I? Finally, equities finished the week lower despite today’s modest pop higher. The BDI finished the week at 596 points.
Domestically, demand for corn and soybeans remains brisk. Weekly ethanol production ticked 6,000 bpd higher versus last week’s report; don’t forget the most recent NOPA crush figures for Feb only barely missed expectations but were still 3.8% higher than year ago levels. Corn has been sporting a carry all year and the wheat contracts have been widening out as the market works to ration demand. Next Tuesday the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report will give us an early glimpse into new crop production. Average trade estimates for U.S. plantings (in million acres):
· Corn 88.731,
· Soybeans 85.919,
· All-wheat 55.796
· Winter wheat 40.727,
· Spring/other wheat 13.334,
· Durum 1.759.
Once again, basis levels are stagnant. Geograin reported that the average bid for corn was unchanged on the week while soybean bids rose 2 cents. HRW wheat was firmer in KC while spring wheat was a mixed bag. High pro, high quality continues to distance itself from sub 14 pro grain, particularly when the DHV is lower. Selected nearby bids as follows:
Chicago Gulf PNW
Soybeans Option K .82 K .95 K
Corn: .15 K .62 K 1.05 K
SRW: .10 K .90 K N/A
HRW: N/A .80 K (12 pro) 1.20 K (11.5 pro)
DNS 14 pro: 1.45 K N/A 3.00 K
SWW: N/A N/A 1.70 K
International grain business this week:
· ADM sold the CCC sorghum tender for Sudan. Prices were $262.19/MT for 20,700 MT and $268.10/MT for 25,770 MT FOB Galveston.
· KFA (S. Korea) announced a tender for 65,000 MT of optional origin corn. The word on the street is, that the tender has been cancelled.
· Iran bought 80,000 MT of German and Black Sea origin milling wheat for April shipment.
· S. Korea bought a total of 33,897 MT of non-glutinous brown rice for arrival in Jun and Sep.
· Bangladesh's state grains buyer announced two tenders on Monday to import a total of 100,000 MT of wheat for May shipment.
Please don’t hesitate to contact me with any questions or comments. [email protected]
Happy trading!
Sean K. Treasure
Disclaimer: Commodity trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for everyone. Neither the information presented, nor any opinions expressed, constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodities. The thoughts expressed in this wire and basic data from which they are derived are believed to be reliable, but cannot be guaranteed due to uncertainty about future events and complexities surrounding commodity markets. Those acting on the information are responsible for their own actions.
In outside markets, crude finished the week higher despite today’s nearly 6% drop in nearby WTI. Yahoo! Finance had a good article regarding frackers and low crude prices. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-american-frackers-plan-to-beat-opec-143601751.html If you don’t feel like reading it the takeaway is, it’s good for consumers. The US dollar index finished lower on the week as the market awaits next week’s jobs report. For what it’s worth, the Fed Chairman said this week that the Fed is giving "serious consideration" to beginning to reduce its accommodative monetary policy. I’m not sure what that means but who the hell am I? Finally, equities finished the week lower despite today’s modest pop higher. The BDI finished the week at 596 points.
Domestically, demand for corn and soybeans remains brisk. Weekly ethanol production ticked 6,000 bpd higher versus last week’s report; don’t forget the most recent NOPA crush figures for Feb only barely missed expectations but were still 3.8% higher than year ago levels. Corn has been sporting a carry all year and the wheat contracts have been widening out as the market works to ration demand. Next Tuesday the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report will give us an early glimpse into new crop production. Average trade estimates for U.S. plantings (in million acres):
· Corn 88.731,
· Soybeans 85.919,
· All-wheat 55.796
· Winter wheat 40.727,
· Spring/other wheat 13.334,
· Durum 1.759.
Once again, basis levels are stagnant. Geograin reported that the average bid for corn was unchanged on the week while soybean bids rose 2 cents. HRW wheat was firmer in KC while spring wheat was a mixed bag. High pro, high quality continues to distance itself from sub 14 pro grain, particularly when the DHV is lower. Selected nearby bids as follows:
Chicago Gulf PNW
Soybeans Option K .82 K .95 K
Corn: .15 K .62 K 1.05 K
SRW: .10 K .90 K N/A
HRW: N/A .80 K (12 pro) 1.20 K (11.5 pro)
DNS 14 pro: 1.45 K N/A 3.00 K
SWW: N/A N/A 1.70 K
International grain business this week:
· ADM sold the CCC sorghum tender for Sudan. Prices were $262.19/MT for 20,700 MT and $268.10/MT for 25,770 MT FOB Galveston.
· KFA (S. Korea) announced a tender for 65,000 MT of optional origin corn. The word on the street is, that the tender has been cancelled.
· Iran bought 80,000 MT of German and Black Sea origin milling wheat for April shipment.
· S. Korea bought a total of 33,897 MT of non-glutinous brown rice for arrival in Jun and Sep.
· Bangladesh's state grains buyer announced two tenders on Monday to import a total of 100,000 MT of wheat for May shipment.
Please don’t hesitate to contact me with any questions or comments. [email protected]
Happy trading!
Sean K. Treasure
Disclaimer: Commodity trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for everyone. Neither the information presented, nor any opinions expressed, constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodities. The thoughts expressed in this wire and basic data from which they are derived are believed to be reliable, but cannot be guaranteed due to uncertainty about future events and complexities surrounding commodity markets. Those acting on the information are responsible for their own actions.
